Pitch Radar

Hull City vs Brentford: what the numbers say

EPL · Round 8 · 25 Oct 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win27%Hull City
Draw24%
Away win48%Brentford
Expected points, home1.06

What to expect

A slight edge to Brentford: 48% against 27%. Attack against defence: Brentford should create more, 1.77 expected goals a match against 1.32. Read the table with care: Hull City have taken 2.5 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
Hull City8585.5+2.51.151.44
Brentford4598.4+0.62.101.50

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All EPL matches with xG → · Full EPL xPTS table →