Real Madrid

LaLiga · Spain · season 2026/27 · 12 matches · 10W 0D 2L

Place2 of 20

Points30

xPTS27.7

Δ points − xPTS+2.3

Scored / xG31 / 30.6

Conceded / xGA10 / 12.1

Next match

Real Madrid

Celta Vigo

Celta Vigo · at home, 21 Nov 2026
Win 71% · draw 19% · defeat 11%

The match in numbers →

Fixture difficulty

The next three opponents by the club's own chances. A kind run.

Celta Vigo 71%

Alavés 76%

Real Sociedad 70%

What the numbers say

Points. 30 points from 27.7 xPTS (+2.3). By quality of play (xPTS) the club sits exactly where it is in the table: 2nd. Source of the surplus: conceding less than expected (−2.1 vs xGA).

Attack. 2.55 xG per match — 2nd of 20 (league average 1.57): one of the most dangerous attacks in the league. Scored 31 goals from 30.6 xG — finishing is on par. 2nd in the league for goals per match.

Defence. 1.01 xGA per match — 1st of 20 for solidity (league average 1.57): allows less in front of its own goal than anyone in the league. Conceded 10 goals from 12.1 xGA — 17% fewer than expected. The gap is small, still within the usual spread.

Regression risk: HIGH. Points are ahead of performance by 0.19 per match: expected pace 2.3 points per match vs the current 2.5.

Round by round

The solid line is points won, the dashed line is expected points (xPTS). The gap shows how far results run ahead of performance, or behind it.

Points 30 xPTS 27.7 points are 2.3 ahead of performance

Fixtures and forecast

Current pace is 2.50 points per match, the pace expected from the next opponents is 2.27. Over the next 5 rounds the model gives 11.4 points. Outcome chances and expected points come from the opponent's attack and defence with a home advantage adjustment: a fixture is worth 3 points for a win and 1 for a draw.

Opponent	Venue	Date	Win	Draw	Defeat	Expected points
Celta Vigo	home	2026-11-21	71%	19%	11%	2.31
Alavés	home	2026-11-28	76%	15%	9%	2.42
Real Sociedad	away	2026-12-02	70%	16%	14%	2.27
Athletic Club	away	2026-12-06	51%	23%	26%	1.76
Osasuna	home	2026-12-13	83%	11%	6%	2.61