The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
Barcelona are favourites: 86% to win against 6%. Attack against defence: Barcelona should create more, 2.83 expected goals a match against 1.75. Villarreal are 5.9 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barcelona | 1 | 8 | 24 | 21.3 | +2.7 | 4.04 | 0.99 |
| Villarreal | 10 | 8 | 8 | 13.9 | −5.9 | 2.52 | 1.61 |
Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.