The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
Atlético Madrid are favourites: 66% to win against 13%. Attack against defence: Atlético Madrid should create more, 1.83 expected goals a match against 1.00. Read the table with care: Atlético Madrid have taken 4.1 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Getafe | 13 | 8 | 8 | 6.8 | +1.2 | 0.81 | 1.71 |
| Atlético Madrid | 2 | 8 | 19 | 14.9 | +4.1 | 1.96 | 1.19 |
Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.