The score says how it ended. xG says how it should have ended: it is the sum of the chances each shot was worth, not an opinion about the game.
A draw, but Celta Vigo created more (1.48 xG against 0.55) — points dropped.
| Team | Goals | xG | Goals − xG | Expected points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celta Vigo | 1 | 1.48 | −0.5 | 2.07 |
| Málaga | 1 | 0.55 | +0.4 | 0.67 |
Celta Vigo: −1.7 for the season (14 in the table). Málaga: −2.4 (20). The gap between points and xPTS is built from matches like this one.