The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
A slight edge to Real Sociedad: 47% against 26%. Attack against defence: Real Sociedad should create more, 1.67 expected goals a match against 1.32. Málaga are 2.4 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Málaga | 20 | 7 | 3 | 5.4 | −2.4 | 0.81 | 2.00 |
| Real Sociedad | 8 | 7 | 10 | 8.0 | +2.0 | 1.34 | 1.83 |
Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.