The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
A slight edge to Alavés: 42% against 27%. Attack against defence: Alavés should create more, 1.42 expected goals a match against 1.09. Celta Vigo are 1.7 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celta Vigo | 14 | 7 | 7 | 8.7 | −1.7 | 1.09 | 1.31 |
| Alavés | 6 | 7 | 11 | 11.5 | −0.5 | 1.52 | 1.09 |
Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.