The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
Real Madrid are favourites: 83% to win against 6%. Attack against defence: Real Madrid should create more, 2.16 expected goals a match against 1.08. Read the table with care: Sevilla have taken 4.7 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | 4 | 7 | 15 | 16.5 | −1.5 | 2.81 | 1.11 |
| Sevilla | 5 | 7 | 13 | 8.3 | +4.7 | 1.06 | 1.50 |
Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.