The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
A slight edge to Osasuna: 53% against 25%. Attack against defence: Osasuna should create more, 1.77 expected goals a match against 1.55.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Osasuna | 13 | 7 | 8 | 9.1 | −1.1 | 1.27 | 1.71 |
| Racing Santander | 16 | 7 | 7 | 8.1 | −1.1 | 1.40 | 2.28 |
Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.