The score says how it ended. xG says how it should have ended: it is the sum of the chances each shot was worth, not an opinion about the game.
A fair draw: the xG gap is only 0.43.
| Team | Goals | xG | Goals − xG | Expected points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Osasuna | 1 | 0.93 | +0.1 | 1.04 |
| Rayo Vallecano | 1 | 1.36 | −0.4 | 1.68 |
Osasuna: −1.1 for the season (13 in the table). Rayo Vallecano: +0.3 (12). The gap between points and xPTS is built from matches like this one.