The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
Racing Santander are favourites: 55% to win against 22%. Attack against defence: level, 1.60 and 1.54 expected goals a match. Valencia are 1.9 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Racing Santander | 16 | 7 | 7 | 8.1 | −1.1 | 1.40 | 2.28 |
| Valencia | 19 | 7 | 4 | 5.8 | −1.9 | 0.81 | 1.81 |
Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.