Pitch Radar

Real Betis vs Osasuna: what the numbers say

LaLiga · Round 8 · 11 Oct 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win59%Real Betis
Draw20%
Away win21%Osasuna
Expected points, home1.96

What to expect

Real Betis are favourites: 59% to win against 21%. Attack against defence: Real Betis should create more, 1.79 expected goals a match against 1.55. Read the table with care: Real Betis have taken 6.2 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
Real Betis37169.8+6.21.881.83
Osasuna13789.1−1.11.271.71

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All LaLiga matches with xG → · Full LaLiga xPTS table →