The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
No clear favourite: 35% home, 26% draw, 38% away. Attack against defence: Celta Vigo should create more, 1.67 expected goals a match against 1.35. Elche are 2.5 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elche | 18 | 7 | 5 | 7.5 | −2.5 | 1.40 | 2.24 |
| Celta Vigo | 14 | 7 | 7 | 8.7 | −1.7 | 1.09 | 1.31 |
Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.