The score says how it ended. xG says how it should have ended: it is the sum of the chances each shot was worth, not an opinion about the game.
A fair draw: the xG gap is only 0.12.
| Team | Goals | xG | Goals − xG | Expected points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia | 0 | 0.42 | −0.4 | 1.14 |
| Celta Vigo | 0 | 0.54 | −0.5 | 1.38 |
Valencia: −1.9 for the season (19 in the table). Celta Vigo: −1.7 (14). The gap between points and xPTS is built from matches like this one.