Pitch Radar

Lens vs Paris FC: what the numbers say

Ligue 1 · Round 8 · 24 Oct 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win25%Lens
Draw24%
Away win50%Paris FC
Expected points, home1.00

What to expect

A slight edge to Paris FC: 50% against 25%. Attack against defence: Paris FC should create more, 1.77 expected goals a match against 1.58. Lens are 4.8 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
Lens15548.8−4.82.501.66
Paris FC351111.1−0.11.890.66

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All Ligue 1 matches with xG → · Full Ligue 1 xPTS table →