Points. 4 points from 8.8 xPTS (−4.8). By quality of play (xPTS) it ranks 3rd in the league, but 10th in the table. Source of the shortfall: missed chances (−3.5 goals vs xG).
Attack. 2.50 xG per match — 2nd of 18 (league average 1.65): one of the most dangerous attacks in the league. Only 9 goals scored from 12.5 xG (−3.5): the chances are there, the finishing is not. If the chance quality holds, the goals will come.
Defence. 1.66 xGA per match — 10th of 18 for solidity (league average 1.65). Conceded 9 goals from 8.3 xGA — exactly in line with the chances allowed.
Upside potential: HIGH. Performance is better than results by 0.96 points per match: expected pace 1.8 points per match vs the current 0.8.
The solid line is points won, the dashed line is expected points (xPTS). The gap shows how far results run ahead of performance, or behind it.
Current pace is 0.80 points per match, the pace expected from the next opponents is 1.81. Over the next 5 rounds the model gives 9.0 points. Expected points come from the opponent's attack and defence with a home advantage adjustment.
| Opponent | Venue | Date | Expected points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lyon | home | 2026-10-10 | 1.75 |
| Troyes | away | 2026-10-17 | 2.13 |
| Paris FC | home | 2026-10-24 | 1.01 |
| Lille | away | 2026-10-31 | 1.87 |
| Marseille | home | 2026-11-07 | 2.27 |