The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
A slight edge to Paris Saint-Germain: 49% against 27%. Attack against defence: level, 1.69 and 1.57 expected goals a match. Read the table with care: Lyon have taken 1.8 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint-Germain | 6 | 5 | 8 | 9.7 | −1.7 | 2.19 | 1.16 |
| Lyon | 2 | 5 | 11 | 9.2 | +1.8 | 1.99 | 1.18 |
Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.