Points. 5 points from 7.0 xPTS (−2.0). By quality of play (xPTS) it ranks 6th in the league, but 9th in the table. A small shortfall, still within the margin of error. Source: missed chances (−2.3 goals vs xG).
Attack. 1.57 xG per match — 9th of 18 (league average 1.65): an average attack for this league. Only 4 goals scored from 6.3 xG (−2.3): the chances are there, the finishing is not. If the chance quality holds, the goals will come.
Defence. 0.98 xGA per match — 2nd of 18 for solidity (league average 1.65). Conceded 4 goals from 3.9 xGA — exactly in line with the chances allowed.
Playing to its level. Points (5) are close to the quality of play (7.0 xPTS).
The solid line is points won, the dashed line is expected points (xPTS). The gap shows how far results run ahead of performance, or behind it.
Current pace is 1.25 points per match, the pace expected from the next opponents is 1.92. Over the next 5 rounds the model gives 9.6 points. Expected points come from the opponent's attack and defence with a home advantage adjustment.
| Opponent | Venue | Date | Expected points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marseille | away | 2026-09-20 | 1.71 |
| Le Mans | home | 2026-10-10 | 2.33 |
| Strasbourg | away | 2026-10-17 | 1.91 |
| Lyon | home | 2026-10-25 | 1.68 |
| Le Havre | away | 2026-10-31 | 1.98 |