The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
Paris Saint-Germain are favourites: 83% to win against 6%. Attack against defence: Paris Saint-Germain should create more, 2.15 expected goals a match against 1.20. Paris Saint-Germain are 1.7 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint-Germain | 6 | 5 | 8 | 9.7 | −1.7 | 2.19 | 1.16 |
| Troyes | 16 | 5 | 4 | 4.0 | +0.1 | 1.24 | 2.10 |
Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.