Pitch Radar

Auxerre vs Paris FC: what the numbers say

Ligue 1 · Round 10 · 7 Nov 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win9%Auxerre
Draw18%
Away win73%Paris FC
Expected points, home0.45

What to expect

Paris FC are favourites: 73% to win against 9%. Attack against defence: Paris FC should create more, 2.02 expected goals a match against 1.02.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
Auxerre10565.7+0.31.372.14
Paris FC351111.1−0.11.890.66

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All Ligue 1 matches with xG → · Full Ligue 1 xPTS table →