The score says how it ended. xG says how it should have ended: it is the sum of the chances each shot was worth, not an opinion about the game.
Lille won against the run of chances: Toulouse created more (2.97 xG against 1.04).
Toulouse: −4.0 for the season (13 in the table). Lille: +3.9 (4). The gap between points and xPTS is built from matches like this one.