Toulouse — Lille 0:1

Toulouse

0:1

Lille

The score says how it ended. xG says how it should have ended: it is the sum of the chances each shot was worth, not an opinion about the game.

Who deserved it

Lille won against the run of chances: Toulouse created more (2.97 xG against 1.04).

The numbers

Team	Goals	xG	Goals − xG	Expected points
Toulouse	0	2.97	−3.0	2.42
Lille	1	1.04	−0.0	0.44

Goals

Minute	Goal	Team	Shot xG	Assist
72'	Ayase Ueda	Lille	0.55

Key chances

Minute	Player	Team	xG	Outcome
74'	Casper Tengstedt	Toulouse	0.65	off target
37'	Jacen Russell-Rowe	Toulouse	0.61	blocked
72'	Ayase Ueda	Lille	0.55	goal, header

Shots: Toulouse 24, Lille 10; big chances (xG 0.3 and above): 4 and 1.

How the game went

In the first half xG was Toulouse 1.94, Lille 0.30: a big edge for Toulouse. In the second half xG was Toulouse 1.05, Lille 0.80: about even. Toulouse scored 0 from 2.97 xG: fewer than they created. As a rule, finishing like this evens out over time.

How it fits the season

Toulouse: −5.0 for the season (12 in the table). Lille: +7.3 (2). The gap between points and xPTS is built from matches like this one.

All Ligue 1 matches with xG →