Lille

Next match

Lyon · at home, 21 Nov 2026
Win 33% · draw 27% · defeat 41%

Fixture difficulty

The next three opponents by the club's own chances. A mixed run.

What the numbers say

Points. 21 points from 13.8 xPTS (+7.3) — the biggest overperformance in the league. By quality of play (xPTS) it ranks 9th in the league, but 2nd in the table. Source of the surplus: conceding less than expected (−7.3 vs xGA).

Attack. 1.39 xG per match — 11th of 18 (league average 1.59): an average attack for this league. Scored 14 goals from 13.9 xG — finishing is on par. What they create is what they score.

Defence. 1.43 xGA per match — 7th of 18 for solidity (league average 1.59): mid-table for chances allowed. Conceded 7 goals from 14.3 xGA — 51% fewer than expected. The goalkeeper and opponent misses are carrying the team; keeping this up over a full season is rare.

Regression risk: HIGH. Points are ahead of performance by 0.72 per match: expected pace 1.4 points per match vs the current 2.1.

Round by round

The solid line is points won, the dashed line is expected points (xPTS). The gap shows how far results run ahead of performance, or behind it.

Fixtures and forecast

Current pace is 2.10 points per match, the pace expected from the next opponents is 1.51. Over the next 5 rounds the model gives 7.5 points. Outcome chances and expected points come from the opponent's attack and defence with a home advantage adjustment: a fixture is worth 3 points for a win and 1 for a draw.

Follow this club: send the bot the command /follow Lille and it will write when results and performance diverge.

The season so far

Every match: played with the score, ahead with the date. Click for the breakdown.

Club players

Around them in the table

Full Ligue 1 xPTS table →

Other clubs of the league