Toulouse

Next match

Lens · away, 21 Nov 2026
Win 37% · draw 23% · defeat 40%

Fixture difficulty

The next three opponents by the club's own chances. A mixed run.

What the numbers say

Points. 13 points from 18.0 xPTS (−5.0). By quality of play (xPTS) it ranks 4th in the league, but 12th in the table. Source of the shortfall: missed chances (−2.6 goals vs xG) and extra goals conceded (+1.5 vs xGA).

Attack. 1.76 xG per match — 6th of 18 (league average 1.59): one of the most dangerous attacks in the league. Scored 15 goals from 17.6 xG — 15% fewer than expected. A small finishing shortfall, still within the usual spread.

Defence. 1.25 xGA per match — 5th of 18 for solidity (league average 1.59): allows few chances near its own goal. Conceded 14 goals from 12.5 xGA — 12% more than expected. The gap is small and usually closes over a season.

Upside potential: HIGH. Performance is better than results by 0.50 points per match: expected pace 1.8 points per match vs the current 1.3.

Round by round

The solid line is points won, the dashed line is expected points (xPTS). The gap shows how far results run ahead of performance, or behind it.

Fixtures and forecast

Current pace is 1.30 points per match, the pace expected from the next opponents is 1.79. Over the next 5 rounds the model gives 8.9 points. Outcome chances and expected points come from the opponent's attack and defence with a home advantage adjustment: a fixture is worth 3 points for a win and 1 for a draw.

Follow this club: send the bot the command /follow Toulouse and it will write when results and performance diverge.

The season so far

Every match: played with the score, ahead with the date. Click for the breakdown.

Club players

Around them in the table

Full Ligue 1 xPTS table →

Other clubs of the league