Akron Tolyatti — Dynamo Moscow 3:1

Akron Tolyatti

3:1

Dynamo Moscow

The score says how it ended. xG says how it should have ended: it is the sum of the chances each shot was worth, not an opinion about the game.

Who deserved it

Dynamo Moscow created more (1.74 xG against 0.93) and left with nothing.

The numbers

Team	Goals	xG	Goals − xG	Expected points
Akron Tolyatti	3	0.93	+2.1	0.83
Dynamo Moscow	1	1.74	−0.7	1.93

Goals

Minute	Goal	Team	Shot xG	Assist
16'	Artem Shumanskiy	Akron Tolyatti	0.03	Dmitri Pestryakov
54'	Iaroslav Gladyshev	Dynamo Moscow	0.06	Ivan Sergeev
69'	Kristijan Bistrovic	Akron Tolyatti	0.04
93'	Maksim Boldyrev	Akron Tolyatti	0.37

Key chances

Minute	Player	Team	xG	Outcome
65'	Maksim Osipenko	Dynamo Moscow	0.44	off target
93'	Stefan Loncar	Akron Tolyatti	0.40	saved
62'	Konstantin Tyukavin	Dynamo Moscow	0.11	saved

Shots: Akron Tolyatti 11, Dynamo Moscow 25; big chances (xG 0.3 and above): 2 and 1.

How the game went

In the first half xG was Akron Tolyatti 0.21, Dynamo Moscow 0.39: about even. In the second half xG was Akron Tolyatti 0.87, Dynamo Moscow 1.36: a small edge for Dynamo Moscow. Akron Tolyatti scored 3 from 0.93 xG: well above what they created. As a rule, finishing like this evens out over time.

How it fits the season

Akron Tolyatti: −2.6 for the season (14 in the table). Dynamo Moscow: +7.3 (2). The gap between points and xPTS is built from matches like this one.

Other matches of the round

Fakel Voronezh — Rodina Moscow 0:1Rubin Kazan — Krylia Sovetov 0:2Krasnodar — Baltika Kaliningrad 1:1

All RPL matches with xG →