Krasnodar — Baltika Kaliningrad 1:1

Krasnodar

1:1

Baltika Kaliningrad

The score says how it ended. xG says how it should have ended: it is the sum of the chances each shot was worth, not an opinion about the game.

Who deserved it

A fair draw: the xG gap is only 0.15.

The numbers

Team	Goals	xG	Goals − xG	Expected points
Krasnodar	1	1.03	−0.0	1.46
Baltika Kaliningrad	1	0.88	+0.1	1.22

Goals

Minute	Goal	Team	Shot xG	Assist
29'	Jhon Córdoba	Krasnodar	0.36	Ilya Vakhanla
92'	Loris Mouyokolo	Baltika Kaliningrad	0.27	Vladislav Pospelov

Key chances

Minute	Player	Team	xG	Outcome
29'	Jhon Córdoba	Krasnodar	0.36	goal
92'	Loris Mouyokolo	Baltika Kaliningrad	0.27	goal, from a corner
35'	Jubal	Krasnodar	0.25	saved, header, from a corner

Shots: Krasnodar 9, Baltika Kaliningrad 14; big chances (xG 0.3 and above): 1 and 0.

How the game went

In the first half xG was Krasnodar 0.89, Baltika Kaliningrad 0.21: a small edge for Krasnodar. In the second half xG was Krasnodar 0.15, Baltika Kaliningrad 0.67: a small edge for Baltika Kaliningrad. The edge in chances passed from Krasnodar to Baltika Kaliningrad.

How it fits the season

Krasnodar: +6.6 for the season (4 in the table). Baltika Kaliningrad: −6.1 (9). The gap between points and xPTS is built from matches like this one.

Other matches of the round

Akron Tolyatti — Dynamo Moscow 3:1Fakel Voronezh — Rodina Moscow 0:1Rubin Kazan — Krylia Sovetov 0:2

All RPL matches with xG →