The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
No clear favourite: 32% home, 30% draw, 38% away. Attack against defence: Baltika Kaliningrad should create more, 1.26 expected goals a match against 1.06. Read the table with care: Krasnodar have taken 7.4 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Krasnodar | 1 | 9 | 21 | 13.6 | +7.4 | 1.28 | 1.03 |
| Baltika Kaliningrad | 8 | 9 | 11 | 16.2 | −5.2 | 1.49 | 0.85 |
Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.