Points. 19 points from 15.5 xPTS (+3.5). By quality of play (xPTS) it ranks 4th in the league, but 3rd in the table. Source of the surplus: finishing (+1.1 goals above xG).
Attack. 1.43 xG per match — 5th of 16 (league average 1.21): one of the most dangerous attacks in the league. Scored 14 goals from 12.9 xG — finishing is on par.
Defence. 0.94 xGA per match — 4th of 16 for solidity (league average 1.21). Conceded 8 goals from 8.4 xGA — exactly in line with the chances allowed.
Regression risk: HIGH. Points are ahead of performance by 0.39 per match: expected pace 1.7 points per match vs the current 2.1.
The solid line is points won, the dashed line is expected points (xPTS). The gap shows how far results run ahead of performance, or behind it.
Current pace is 2.11 points per match, the pace expected from the next opponents is 1.81. Over the next 5 rounds the model gives 9.1 points. Expected points come from the opponent's attack and defence with a home advantage adjustment.
| Opponent | Venue | Date | Expected points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rubin Kazan | away | 2026-10-10 | 1.75 |
| CSKA Moscow | home | 2026-10-17 | 1.67 |
| Akron Tolyatti | away | 2026-10-24 | 1.78 |
| Akhmat Grozny | home | 2026-10-31 | 1.96 |
| Fakel Voronezh | away | 2026-11-07 | 1.91 |