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Dynamo Moscow

RPL · Russia · season 2026/27 · 14 matches · 10W 1D 3L
Place2 of 16
Points31
xPTS23.7
Δ points − xPTS+7.3
Scored / xG23 / 20.3
Conceded / xGA13 / 13.8

Next match

Dynamo Moscow
VS
Krasnodar

Krasnodar · at home, 22 Nov 2026
Win 53% · draw 25% · defeat 22%

The match in numbers →

Fixture difficulty

The next three opponents by the club's own chances. A mixed run.

Krasnodar 53%Krylia Sovetov 34%Spartak Moscow 21%

What the numbers say

Points. 31 points from 23.7 xPTS (+7.3) — the biggest overperformance in the league. By quality of play (xPTS) it ranks 3rd in the league, but 2nd in the table. Source of the surplus: finishing (+2.8 goals above xG).

Attack. 1.45 xG per match — 4th of 16 (league average 1.24): one of the most dangerous attacks in the league. Scored 23 goals from 20.3 xG — 14% more than expected. A small finishing bonus, still within the usual spread.

Defence. 0.98 xGA per match — 4th of 16 for solidity (league average 1.24): allows few chances near its own goal. Conceded 13 goals from 13.8 xGA — exactly in line with the chances allowed. 2nd in the league for goals conceded per match, and the chances allowed back it up.

Regression risk: HIGH. Points are ahead of performance by 0.52 per match: expected pace 1.7 points per match vs the current 2.2.

Round by round

The solid line is points won, the dashed line is expected points (xPTS). The gap shows how far results run ahead of performance, or behind it.

01631 1 14 round 1: 0:0, Points 1, xPTS 1.5round 2: 1:2, Points 1, xPTS 2.3round 3: 3:1, Points 4, xPTS 3.6round 4: 0:3, Points 4, xPTS 4.2round 5: 3:1, Points 7, xPTS 6.8round 6: 1:0, Points 10, xPTS 9.3round 7: 2:1, Points 13, xPTS 11.2round 8: 1:0, Points 16, xPTS 13.1round 9: 3:0, Points 19, xPTS 15.5round 10: 1:0, Points 22, xPTS 16.7round 11: 3:1, Points 25, xPTS 18.3round 12: 1:3, Points 25, xPTS 20.3round 13: 2:0, Points 28, xPTS 22.5round 14: 2:1, Points 31, xPTS 23.7
Points 31 xPTS 23.7 points are 7.3 ahead of performance

Fixtures and forecast

Current pace is 2.21 points per match, the pace expected from the next opponents is 1.65. Over the next 5 rounds the model gives 8.2 points. Outcome chances and expected points come from the opponent's attack and defence with a home advantage adjustment: a fixture is worth 3 points for a win and 1 for a draw.

OpponentVenueDateWinDrawDefeatExpected points
Krasnodarhome2026-11-2253%25%22%1.84
Krylia Sovetovaway2026-11-2934%28%38%1.30
Spartak Moscowaway2026-12-0521%24%54%0.88
Rubin Kazanhome2027-02-2762%24%14%2.09
Rodina Moscowaway2027-03-0664%21%15%2.12

Follow this club: send the bot the command /follow Dynamo Moscow and it will write when results and performance diverge.

The season so far

Every match: played with the score, ahead with the date. Click for the breakdown.

Krylia Sovetov 0:0 Baltika Kaliningrad 1:2 · awayDynamo Makhachkala 3:1 Zenit 0:3 · awayRodina Moscow 3:1 Lokomotiv Moscow 1:0 · awaySpartak Moscow 2:1 Orenburg 1:0 Rostov 3:0 · awayRubin Kazan 1:0 · awayCSKA Moscow 3:1 Akron Tolyatti 1:3 · awayAkhmat Grozny 2:0 Fakel Voronezh 2:1 · awayKrasnodar · 11.22Krylia Sovetov · 11.29Spartak Moscow · 12.05Rubin Kazan · 02.27Rodina Moscow · 03.06

Club players

Ivan SergeevKonstantin TyukavinIaroslav GladyshevBiteloArthur GomesJuan José CáceresDaniil Fomin

Around them in the table

PlaceClubPPointsxPTSΔ
1Zenit143125.6+5.4
2Dynamo Moscow143123.7+7.3
3Spartak Moscow142927.5+1.5
4Krasnodar142619.4+6.6

Full RPL xPTS table →

Other clubs of the league

ZenitSpartak MoscowKrasnodarCSKA MoscowRostovKrylia SovetovRubin KazanBaltika KaliningradOrenburgDynamo MakhachkalaAkhmat GroznyRodina MoscowAkron TolyattiLokomotiv MoscowFakel Voronezh