Krasnodar

Next match

Dynamo Moscow · away, 22 Nov 2026
Win 22% · draw 25% · defeat 53%

Fixture difficulty

The next three opponents by the club's own chances. A mixed run.

What the numbers say

Points. 26 points from 19.4 xPTS (+6.6). By quality of play (xPTS) it ranks 8th in the league, but 4th in the table. Source of the surplus: finishing (+7.2 goals above xG).

Attack. 1.27 xG per match — 8th of 16 (league average 1.24): an average attack for this league. Scored 25 goals from 17.8 xG — 41% more than expected. A gap this size usually does not hold: it tends to shrink within a dozen rounds.

Defence. 1.19 xGA per match — 9th of 16 for solidity (league average 1.24): mid-table for chances allowed. Conceded 18 goals from 16.7 xGA — 8% more than expected. The gap is small and usually closes over a season.

Regression risk: HIGH. Points are ahead of performance by 0.47 per match: expected pace 1.4 points per match vs the current 1.9.

Round by round

The solid line is points won, the dashed line is expected points (xPTS). The gap shows how far results run ahead of performance, or behind it.

Fixtures and forecast

Current pace is 1.86 points per match, the pace expected from the next opponents is 1.31. Over the next 5 rounds the model gives 6.5 points. Outcome chances and expected points come from the opponent's attack and defence with a home advantage adjustment: a fixture is worth 3 points for a win and 1 for a draw.

Follow this club: send the bot the command /follow Krasnodar and it will write when results and performance diverge.

The season so far

Every match: played with the score, ahead with the date. Click for the breakdown.

Club players

Around them in the table

Full RPL xPTS table →

Other clubs of the league