Pitch Radar

Krasnodar vs CSKA Moscow: what the numbers say

RPL · Round 14 · 7 Nov 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win41%Krasnodar
Draw26%
Away win33%CSKA Moscow
Expected points, home1.48

What to expect

No clear favourite: 41% home, 26% draw, 33% away. Attack against defence: level, 1.23 and 1.34 expected goals a match. Read the table with care: Krasnodar have taken 7.4 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
Krasnodar192113.6+7.41.281.03
CSKA Moscow491915.9+3.11.651.19

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All RPL matches with xG → · Full RPL xPTS table →