The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
A slight edge to Krasnodar: 53% against 23%. Attack against defence: Krasnodar should create more, 1.52 expected goals a match against 1.04. Read the table with care: Krasnodar have taken 7.4 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lokomotiv Moscow | 14 | 9 | 7 | 7.9 | −0.9 | 1.05 | 1.76 |
| Krasnodar | 1 | 9 | 21 | 13.6 | +7.4 | 1.28 | 1.03 |
Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.