Lokomotiv Moscow — Krasnodar 3:3

Lokomotiv Moscow

3:3

Krasnodar

The score says how it ended. xG says how it should have ended: it is the sum of the chances each shot was worth, not an opinion about the game.

Who deserved it

A fair draw: the xG gap is only 0.44.

The numbers

Team	Goals	xG	Goals − xG	Expected points
Lokomotiv Moscow	3	1.70	+1.3	1.67
Krasnodar	3	1.26	+1.7	1.09

Goals

Minute	Goal	Team	Shot xG	Assist
4'	Batxi	Krasnodar	0.02	Jhon Córdoba
15'	Nikolay Titkov	Lokomotiv Moscow	0.09
70'	Aleksandr Rudenko	Lokomotiv Moscow	0.64	Maksim Nenakhov
77'	Aleksandr Kovalenko	Lokomotiv Moscow	0.52
85'	Lucas Olaza	Krasnodar	0.05	Batxi
90'	Jhon Córdoba	Krasnodar	0.47	Batxi

Key chances

Minute	Player	Team	xG	Outcome
70'	Aleksandr Rudenko	Lokomotiv Moscow	0.64	goal, header
77'	Aleksandr Kovalenko	Lokomotiv Moscow	0.52	goal
90'	Jhon Córdoba	Krasnodar	0.47	goal, header

Shots: Lokomotiv Moscow 12, Krasnodar 19; big chances (xG 0.3 and above): 2 and 1.

How the game went

In the first half xG was Lokomotiv Moscow 0.43, Krasnodar 0.42: about even. In the second half xG was Lokomotiv Moscow 1.40, Krasnodar 0.83: a small edge for Lokomotiv Moscow. Lokomotiv Moscow scored 3 from 1.70 xG: more than they created. Krasnodar scored 3 from 1.26 xG: well above what they created. As a rule, finishing like this evens out over time.

How it fits the season

Lokomotiv Moscow: −2.6 for the season (15 in the table). Krasnodar: +6.6 (4). The gap between points and xPTS is built from matches like this one.

Other matches of the round

Krylia Sovetov — Fakel Voronezh 1:2Dynamo Makhachkala — Akron Tolyatti 1:1

All RPL matches with xG →