AC Milan — Venezia 2:0

AC Milan

2:0

Venezia

The score says how it ended. xG says how it should have ended: it is the sum of the chances each shot was worth, not an opinion about the game.

Who deserved it

The score matched the game: AC Milan was the better side by chances too.

The numbers

Team	Goals	xG	Goals − xG	Expected points
AC Milan	2	3.22	−1.2	2.73
Venezia	0	0.52	−0.5	0.18

Goals

Minute	Goal	Team	Shot xG	Assist
68'	Gonçalo Ramos	AC Milan	0.36	Alexis Saelemaekers
88'	Redouane Halal (own goal)	AC Milan	—

Key chances

Minute	Player	Team	xG	Outcome
54'	Yunus Musah	AC Milan	0.60	hit the woodwork, from a set piece
88'	Ardon Jashari	AC Milan	0.52	saved
59'	Gonçalo Ramos	AC Milan	0.51	off target, header

Shots: AC Milan 16, Venezia 9; big chances (xG 0.3 and above): 5 and 0.

How the game went

In the first half xG was AC Milan 0.99, Venezia 0.18: a clear edge for AC Milan. In the second half xG was AC Milan 2.25, Venezia 0.33: a big edge for AC Milan. The edge in chances lasted the whole match. AC Milan scored 2 from 3.22 xG: fewer than they created. As a rule, finishing like this evens out over time.

How it fits the season

AC Milan: +5.8 for the season (4 in the table). Venezia: −5.9 (19). The gap between points and xPTS is built from matches like this one.

All Serie A matches with xG →