Pitch Radar

AC Milan

Serie A · Italy · season 2026/27 · 4 matches · 2W 2D 0L
Place6 of 20
Points8
xPTS6.0
Δ points − xPTS+2.0
Scored / xG7 / 7.2
Conceded / xGA4 / 5.7

What the numbers say

Points. 8 points from 6.0 xPTS (+2.0). By quality of play (xPTS) it ranks 10th in the league, but 6th in the table. A small surplus, still within the margin of error. Source: conceding less than expected (−1.7 vs xGA).

Attack. 1.80 xG per match — 8th of 20 (league average 1.72): an average attack for this league. Scored 7 goals from 7.2 xG — finishing is on par.

Defence. 1.43 xGA per match — 7th of 20 for solidity (league average 1.72). Conceded 4 goals from 5.7 xGA — 1.7 fewer than expected: the goalkeeper is bailing them out or opponents are missing. The defence itself is one of the most solid in the league, so even after a correction they will concede little.

Playing to its level. Points (8) are close to the quality of play (6.0 xPTS).

4 matches played. Over this distance the metrics already show a trend, but randomness is still large — treat this as an early signal, not a verdict.

Round by round

The solid line is points won, the dashed line is expected points (xPTS). The gap shows how far results run ahead of performance, or behind it.

048 1 4 round 1: 2:1, Points 3, xPTS 1.8round 2: 2:0, Points 6, xPTS 4.7round 3: 1:1, Points 7, xPTS 4.8round 4: 2:2, Points 8, xPTS 6.0
Points 8 xPTS 6.0 points are 2.0 ahead of performance

Fixtures and forecast

Current pace is 2.00 points per match, the pace expected from the next opponents is 2.00. Over the next 5 rounds the model gives 10.0 points. Expected points come from the opponent's attack and defence with a home advantage adjustment.

OpponentVenueDateExpected points
Leccehome2026-09-202.58
Sassuoloaway2026-10-111.26
Atalantahome2026-10-172.52
Udineseaway2026-10-252.05
Bolognahome2026-10-281.57

Other clubs of the league

Full Serie A xPTS table →