AC Milan

Next match

Frosinone · at home, 22 Nov 2026
Win 65% · draw 17% · defeat 18%

Fixture difficulty

The next three opponents by the club's own chances. A kind run.

What the numbers say

Points. 24 points from 18.2 xPTS (+5.8). By quality of play (xPTS) it ranks 7th in the league, but 4th in the table. Source of the surplus: finishing (+2.1 goals above xG) and conceding less than expected (−2.2 vs xGA).

Attack. 1.90 xG per match — 7th of 20 (league average 1.70): one of the most dangerous attacks in the league. Scored 23 goals from 20.9 xG — 10% more than expected. A small finishing bonus, still within the usual spread.

Defence. 1.38 xGA per match — 7th of 20 for solidity (league average 1.70): allows few chances near its own goal. Conceded 13 goals from 15.2 xGA — 15% fewer than expected. The gap is small, still within the usual spread.

Regression risk: HIGH. Points are ahead of performance by 0.53 per match: expected pace 1.7 points per match vs the current 2.2.

Round by round

The solid line is points won, the dashed line is expected points (xPTS). The gap shows how far results run ahead of performance, or behind it.

Fixtures and forecast

Current pace is 2.18 points per match, the pace expected from the next opponents is 1.81. Over the next 5 rounds the model gives 9.0 points. Outcome chances and expected points come from the opponent's attack and defence with a home advantage adjustment: a fixture is worth 3 points for a win and 1 for a draw.

Follow this club: send the bot the command /follow AC Milan and it will write when results and performance diverge.

The season so far

Every match: played with the score, ahead with the date. Click for the breakdown.

Club players

Around them in the table

Full Serie A xPTS table →

Other clubs of the league