Atalanta — Bologna 1:0

Atalanta

1:0

Bologna

The score says how it ended. xG says how it should have ended: it is the sum of the chances each shot was worth, not an opinion about the game.

Who deserved it

Atalanta won against the run of chances: Bologna created more (1.24 xG against 0.18).

The numbers

Team	Goals	xG	Goals − xG	Expected points
Atalanta	1	0.18	+0.8	0.46
Bologna	0	1.24	−1.2	2.24

Goals

Minute	Goal	Team	Shot xG	Assist
95'	Lazar Samardzic	Atalanta	0.01	Nicola Zalewski

Key chances

Minute	Player	Team	xG	Outcome
17'	Roberto Piccoli	Bologna	0.55	saved, header
49'	Roberto Piccoli	Bologna	0.12	off target
85'	Artem Dovbyk	Bologna	0.08	blocked

Shots: Atalanta 6, Bologna 16; big chances (xG 0.3 and above): 0 and 1.

How the game went

In the first half xG was Atalanta 0.09, Bologna 0.78: a small edge for Bologna. In the second half xG was Atalanta 0.08, Bologna 0.46: a small edge for Bologna. The edge in chances lasted the whole match. Bologna scored 0 from 1.24 xG: fewer than they created. As a rule, finishing like this evens out over time.

How it fits the season

Atalanta: +1.2 for the season (12 in the table). Bologna: −2.1 (8). The gap between points and xPTS is built from matches like this one.

Other matches of the round

Lecce — Roma 0:4

All Serie A matches with xG →