Points. 6 points from 2.3 xPTS (+3.7). By quality of play (xPTS) it ranks 18th in the league, but 11th in the table. Source of the surplus: finishing (+1.6 goals above xG) and conceding less than expected (−3.8 vs xGA).
Attack. 0.84 xG per match — 20th of 20 (league average 1.72): the attack creates less than most rivals. Scored 5 goals from 3.4 xG (+1.6): the ball is going in more often than such chances usually allow. Finishing like this rarely lasts.
Defence. 2.20 xGA per match — 16th of 20 for solidity (league average 1.72). Conceded 5 goals from 8.8 xGA — 3.8 fewer than expected: the goalkeeper is bailing them out or opponents are missing. And plenty of chances are allowed near their own goal — without this luck they would concede far more.
Regression risk: HIGH. Points are ahead of performance by 0.92 per match: expected pace 0.6 points per match vs the current 1.5.
The solid line is points won, the dashed line is expected points (xPTS). The gap shows how far results run ahead of performance, or behind it.
Current pace is 1.50 points per match, the pace expected from the next opponents is 0.62. Over the next 5 rounds the model gives 3.1 points. Expected points come from the opponent's attack and defence with a home advantage adjustment.
| Opponent | Venue | Date | Expected points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus | away | 2026-09-20 | 0.14 |
| Venezia | home | 2026-10-11 | 1.03 |
| AC Milan | away | 2026-10-17 | 0.34 |
| Frosinone | home | 2026-10-25 | 1.06 |
| Fiorentina | away | 2026-10-28 | 0.51 |