The score and the xG side by side. Where they disagree, someone rode their luck or wasted chances — and that is exactly how the season-long gap builds up.
| Match | Score | xG | Who deserved it |
|---|---|---|---|
| Akhmat Grozny — Orenburg | 0:1 | 1.82 : 0.55 | got lucky |
| Akron Tolyatti — Dynamo Moscow | 3:1 | 0.93 : 1.74 | got lucky |
| Fakel Voronezh — Rodina Moscow | 0:1 | 0.32 : 1.25 | deserved |
| Rubin Kazan — Krylia Sovetov | 0:2 | 0.24 : 1.02 | deserved |
| Krasnodar — Baltika Kaliningrad | 1:1 | 1.03 : 0.88 | even by chances |
| Rostov — Lokomotiv Moscow | 2:0 | 2.07 : 0.77 | deserved |
| CSKA Moscow — Spartak Moscow | 2:0 | 1.81 : 2.01 | even by chances |
| Zenit — Dynamo Makhachkala | 2:0 | 3.24 : 0.88 | deserved |
Zenit — 3.24 xG. Opponent: Dynamo Makhachkala. Result: a win.
Akhmat Grozny: 1.82 xG against the opponent's 0.55. Result: a defeat.