The table shows the result, xPTS shows the quality of play. Below both clubs sit side by side on every metric: where the gap is real and where luck made it.
| Athletic Club | Villarreal | |
|---|---|---|
| Place | 9 | 10 |
| Points | 8 | 8 |
| xPTS | 12.2 | 13.9 |
| Δ points − xPTS | −4.2 | −5.9 |
| xG per match | 1.88 | 2.52 |
| xGA per match | 1.28 | 1.61 |
| Scored | 7 | 13 |
| Conceded | 6 | 13 |
By quality of play Villarreal is ahead: 13.9 xPTS against 12.2. In the table they are level. The gap between points and play — Athletic Club: −4.2, Villarreal: −5.9.
Expected points over the coming rounds: Athletic Club — 10.7, Villarreal — 9.9.