The table shows the result, xPTS shows the quality of play. Below both clubs sit side by side on every metric: where the gap is real and where luck made it.
| Villarreal | Celta Vigo | |
|---|---|---|
| Place | 10 | 11 |
| Points | 9 | 8 |
| xPTS | 16.7 | 9.7 |
| Δ points − xPTS | −7.7 | −1.7 |
| xG per match | 2.49 | 1 |
| xGA per match | 1.45 | 1.24 |
| Scored | 13 | 8 |
| Conceded | 13 | 6 |
By quality of play Villarreal is ahead: 16.7 xPTS against 9.7. In the table the gap is 1 points. The gap between points and play — Villarreal: −7.7, Celta Vigo: −1.7.
Expected points over the coming rounds: Villarreal — 9.2, Celta Vigo — 6.0.