Augsburg — Schalke 04 3:0
Augsburg
Schalke 04The score says how it ended. xG says how it should have ended: it is the sum of the chances each shot was worth, not an opinion about the game.
Who deserved it
The score matched the game: Augsburg was the better side by chances too.
The numbers
| Team | Goals | xG | Goals − xG | Expected points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Augsburg | 3 | 5.54 | −2.5 | 2.69 |
| Schalke 04 | 0 | 1.84 | −1.8 | 0.25 |
Goals
| Minute | Goal | Team | Shot xG | Assist |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17' | Michael Gregoritsch | Augsburg | 0.91 | Anton Kade |
| 78' | Anton Kade | Augsburg | 0.07 | Fabian Rieder |
| 91' | Rodrigo Ribeiro | Augsburg | 0.08 | Seol Young-Woo |
Key chances
| Minute | Player | Team | xG | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17' | Michael Gregoritsch | Augsburg | 0.91 | goal |
| 28' | Anton Kade | Augsburg | 0.59 | saved |
| 84' | Noahkai Banks | Augsburg | 0.58 | off target, from a set piece |
Shots: Augsburg 24, Schalke 04 11; big chances (xG 0.3 and above): 9 and 2.
How the game went
In the first half xG was Augsburg 2.19, Schalke 04 1.68: a small edge for Augsburg. In the second half xG was Augsburg 3.35, Schalke 04 0.16: a big edge for Augsburg. The edge in chances lasted the whole match. Augsburg scored 3 from 5.54 xG: fewer than they created. Schalke 04 scored 0 from 1.84 xG: fewer than they created. As a rule, finishing like this evens out over time.
How it fits the season
Augsburg: −1.9 for the season (14 in the table). Schalke 04: −1.6 (17). The gap between points and xPTS is built from matches like this one.
Freiburg — 
Werder Bremen 4:1