Schalke 04

Next match

VfB Stuttgart · at home, 21 Nov 2026
Win 30% · draw 20% · defeat 50%

Fixture difficulty

The next three opponents by the club's own chances. A tough run.

What the numbers say

Points. 6 points from 7.6 xPTS (−1.6). By quality of play (xPTS) it ranks 16th in the league, but 17th in the table. Points match the quality of play. Inside that balance fewer goals conceded than expected (−9.4 vs xGA), but finishing falls short (−5.9 vs xG) — one cancels the other.

Attack. 1.21 xG per match — 17th of 18 (league average 1.85): the attack creates less than most rivals. Scored 5 goals from 10.9 xG — 54% fewer than expected — the worst finishing in the league. A drought this size is usually short-lived: with the same chance quality the goals tend to come back.

Defence. 2.27 xGA per match — 14th of 18 for solidity (league average 1.85): allows plenty of chances near its own goal. Conceded 11 goals from 20.4 xGA — 46% fewer than expected — the luckiest goal in the league. The goalkeeper and opponent misses are carrying the team; keeping this up over a full season is rare.

Playing to its level. Points (6) are close to the quality of play (7.6 xPTS).

9 matches played. Over this distance the metrics already show a trend, but randomness is still large — treat this as an early signal, not a verdict.

Round by round

The solid line is points won, the dashed line is expected points (xPTS). The gap shows how far results run ahead of performance, or behind it.

Fixtures and forecast

Current pace is 0.67 points per match, the pace expected from the next opponents is 1.03. Over the next 5 rounds the model gives 5.2 points. Outcome chances and expected points come from the opponent's attack and defence with a home advantage adjustment: a fixture is worth 3 points for a win and 1 for a draw.

Follow this club: send the bot the command /follow Schalke 04 and it will write when results and performance diverge.

The season so far

Every match: played with the score, ahead with the date. Click for the breakdown.

Club players

Around them in the table

Full Bundesliga xPTS table →

Other clubs of the league