Freiburg — Werder Bremen 4:1
Freiburg
Werder BremenThe score says how it ended. xG says how it should have ended: it is the sum of the chances each shot was worth, not an opinion about the game.
Who deserved it
The score matched the game: Freiburg was the better side by chances too.
The numbers
| Team | Goals | xG | Goals − xG | Expected points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freiburg | 4 | 2.39 | +1.6 | 2.25 |
| Werder Bremen | 1 | 0.95 | +0.1 | 0.57 |
Goals
| Minute | Goal | Team | Shot xG | Assist |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28' | Yuito Suzuki | Freiburg | 0.58 | Jan-Niklas Beste |
| 44' | Igor Matanovic | Freiburg | 0.03 | Matthias Ginter |
| 47' | Yuito Suzuki | Freiburg | 0.61 | |
| 54' | Yuito Suzuki | Freiburg | 0.63 | Igor Matanovic |
| 75' | Dariusz Stalmach | Werder Bremen | 0.38 | Marco Grüll |
Key chances
| Minute | Player | Team | xG | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 54' | Yuito Suzuki | Freiburg | 0.63 | goal |
| 47' | Yuito Suzuki | Freiburg | 0.61 | goal |
| 28' | Yuito Suzuki | Freiburg | 0.58 | goal, header, from a corner |
Shots: Freiburg 19, Werder Bremen 9; big chances (xG 0.3 and above): 3 and 1.
How the game went
In the first half xG was Freiburg 1.03, Werder Bremen 0.10: a clear edge for Freiburg. In the second half xG was Freiburg 1.36, Werder Bremen 0.85: a small edge for Freiburg. The edge in chances lasted the whole match. Freiburg scored 4 from 2.39 xG: well above what they created. As a rule, finishing like this evens out over time.
How it fits the season
Freiburg: +2.2 for the season (3 in the table). Werder Bremen: +2.6 (6). The gap between points and xPTS is built from matches like this one.
Augsburg — 
Schalke 04 3:0