Paderborn — Hoffenheim 3:1

Paderborn

3:1

Hoffenheim

The score says how it ended. xG says how it should have ended: it is the sum of the chances each shot was worth, not an opinion about the game.

Who deserved it

Hoffenheim created more (1.67 xG against 1.34) and left with nothing.

The numbers

Team	Goals	xG	Goals − xG	Expected points
Paderborn	3	1.34	+1.7	1.16
Hoffenheim	1	1.67	−0.7	1.60

Goals

Minute	Goal	Team	Shot xG	Assist
28'	Santiago Castañeda	Paderborn	0.05
41'	Stefano Marino	Paderborn	0.50	Laurin Curda
49'	Adam Daghim	Hoffenheim	0.32	Max Moerstedt
68'	Steffen Tigges	Paderborn	0.31	Jonah Sticker

Key chances

Minute	Player	Team	xG	Outcome
41'	Stefano Marino	Paderborn	0.50	goal
49'	Adam Daghim	Hoffenheim	0.32	goal
68'	Steffen Tigges	Paderborn	0.31	goal, header

Shots: Paderborn 13, Hoffenheim 23; big chances (xG 0.3 and above): 2 and 1.

How the game went

In the first half xG was Paderborn 0.77, Hoffenheim 0.39: a small edge for Paderborn. In the second half xG was Paderborn 0.56, Hoffenheim 1.27: a small edge for Hoffenheim. The edge in chances passed from Paderborn to Hoffenheim. Paderborn scored 3 from 1.34 xG: well above what they created. As a rule, finishing like this evens out over time.

How it fits the season

Paderborn: +0.6 for the season (13 in the table). Hoffenheim: −2.3 (9). The gap between points and xPTS is built from matches like this one.

Other matches of the round

Bayer Leverkusen — RB Leipzig 2:0Schalke 04 — Elversberg 0:0

All Bundesliga matches with xG →