The score says how it ended. xG says how it should have ended: it is the sum of the chances each shot was worth, not an opinion about the game.
Hoffenheim created more (1.67 xG against 1.34) and left with nothing.
| Team | Goals | xG | Goals − xG | Expected points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paderborn | 3 | 1.34 | +1.7 | 1.16 |
| Hoffenheim | 1 | 1.67 | −0.7 | 1.60 |
Paderborn: +1.1 for the season (12 in the table). Hoffenheim: −2.8 (14). The gap between points and xPTS is built from matches like this one.