Paderborn

Next match

Bayer Leverkusen · away, 21 Nov 2026
Win 14% · draw 18% · defeat 68%

Fixture difficulty

The next three opponents by the club's own chances. A tough run.

What the numbers say

Points. 10 points from 9.4 xPTS (+0.6). By quality of play (xPTS) the club sits exactly where it is in the table: 13th. Points match the quality of play. Inside that balance fewer goals conceded than expected (−5.3 vs xGA), but finishing falls short (−3.0 vs xG) — one cancels the other.

Attack. 1.22 xG per match — 16th of 18 (league average 1.85): the attack creates less than most rivals. Scored 8 goals from 11.0 xG — 27% fewer than expected. Finishing is clearly below par — the chances are the same, so the goals will probably follow.

Defence. 1.81 xGA per match — 10th of 18 for solidity (league average 1.85): mid-table for chances allowed. Conceded 11 goals from 16.3 xGA — 33% fewer than expected. Part of these clean sheets rests on luck rather than defending.

Playing to its level. Points (10) are close to the quality of play (9.4 xPTS).

9 matches played. Over this distance the metrics already show a trend, but randomness is still large — treat this as an early signal, not a verdict.

Round by round

The solid line is points won, the dashed line is expected points (xPTS). The gap shows how far results run ahead of performance, or behind it.

Fixtures and forecast

Current pace is 1.11 points per match, the pace expected from the next opponents is 1.00. Over the next 5 rounds the model gives 5.0 points. Outcome chances and expected points come from the opponent's attack and defence with a home advantage adjustment: a fixture is worth 3 points for a win and 1 for a draw.

Follow this club: send the bot the command /follow Paderborn and it will write when results and performance diverge.

The season so far

Every match: played with the score, ahead with the date. Click for the breakdown.

Club players

Around them in the table

Full Bundesliga xPTS table →

Other clubs of the league