The score says how it ended. xG says how it should have ended: it is the sum of the chances each shot was worth, not an opinion about the game.
The score matched the game: Schalke 04 was the better side by chances too.
| Team | Goals | xG | Goals − xG | Expected points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Union Berlin | 1 | 1.92 | −0.9 | 0.79 |
| Schalke 04 | 3 | 3.22 | −0.2 | 2.06 |
Union Berlin: −1.2 for the season (17 in the table). Schalke 04: +0.7 (11). The gap between points and xPTS is built from matches like this one.