Union Berlin

Next match

RB Leipzig · at home, 21 Nov 2026
Win 12% · draw 16% · defeat 72%

Fixture difficulty

The next three opponents by the club's own chances. A tough run.

What the numbers say

Points. 7 points from 7.2 xPTS (−0.2). By quality of play (xPTS) it ranks 18th in the league, but 16th in the table. Points match the quality of play. On top of that, finishing falls short (−2.1 vs xG) and more goals conceded than expected (+1.1 vs xGA).

Attack. 1.01 xG per match — 18th of 18 (league average 1.85): creates less in front of goal than anyone in the league. Scored 7 goals from 9.1 xG — 23% fewer than expected. Finishing is clearly below par — the chances are the same, so the goals will probably follow.

Defence. 2.21 xGA per match — 12th of 18 for solidity (league average 1.85): mid-table for chances allowed. Conceded 21 goals from 19.9 xGA — 6% more than expected. The gap is small and usually closes over a season.

Playing to its level. Points (7) are close to the quality of play (7.2 xPTS).

9 matches played. Over this distance the metrics already show a trend, but randomness is still large — treat this as an early signal, not a verdict.

Round by round

The solid line is points won, the dashed line is expected points (xPTS). The gap shows how far results run ahead of performance, or behind it.

Fixtures and forecast

Current pace is 0.78 points per match, the pace expected from the next opponents is 0.70. Over the next 5 rounds the model gives 3.5 points. Outcome chances and expected points come from the opponent's attack and defence with a home advantage adjustment: a fixture is worth 3 points for a win and 1 for a draw.

Follow this club: send the bot the command /follow Union Berlin and it will write when results and performance diverge.

The season so far

Every match: played with the score, ahead with the date. Click for the breakdown.

Club players

Around them in the table

Full Bundesliga xPTS table →

Other clubs of the league