Points. 9 points from 8.4 xPTS (+0.6). By quality of play (xPTS) the club sits exactly where it is in the table: 3rd. Points match the quality of play.
Attack. 2.10 xG per match — 3rd of 20 (league average 1.64): one of the most dangerous attacks in the league. Scored 10 goals from 10.5 xG — finishing is on par.
Defence. 1.50 xGA per match — 9th of 20 for solidity (league average 1.64). Conceded 4 goals from 7.5 xGA — 3.5 fewer than expected: the goalkeeper is bailing them out or opponents are missing. By chances allowed the defence is league-average — once luck evens out, more goals will go in.
Playing to its level. Points (9) are close to the quality of play (8.4 xPTS).
The solid line is points won, the dashed line is expected points (xPTS). The gap shows how far results run ahead of performance, or behind it.
Current pace is 1.80 points per match, the pace expected from the next opponents is 1.69. Over the next 5 rounds the model gives 8.4 points. Expected points come from the opponent's attack and defence with a home advantage adjustment.
| Opponent | Venue | Date | Expected points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa | away | 2026-10-10 | 2.40 |
| Liverpool | home | 2026-10-17 | 1.84 |
| Hull City | away | 2026-10-25 | 1.70 |
| Nottingham Forest | home | 2026-10-31 | 1.44 |
| Brighton | away | 2026-11-07 | 1.07 |