Brentford

Next match

Everton · at home, 23 Nov 2026
Win 43% · draw 23% · defeat 34%

Fixture difficulty

The next three opponents by the club's own chances. A mixed run.

What the numbers say

Points. 14 points from 13.1 xPTS (+0.9). By quality of play (xPTS) it ranks 12th in the league, but 8th in the table. Points match the quality of play. On top of that, finishing runs above expectation (+0.1 vs xG) and fewer goals conceded than expected (−5.0 vs xGA).

Attack. 1.59 xG per match — 10th of 20 (league average 1.60): an average attack for this league. Scored 16 goals from 15.9 xG — finishing is on par. What they create is what they score.

Defence. 1.60 xGA per match — 11th of 20 for solidity (league average 1.60): mid-table for chances allowed. Conceded 11 goals from 16.0 xGA — 31% fewer than expected. Part of these clean sheets rests on luck rather than defending.

Playing to its level. Points (14) are close to the quality of play (13.1 xPTS).

Round by round

The solid line is points won, the dashed line is expected points (xPTS). The gap shows how far results run ahead of performance, or behind it.

Fixtures and forecast

Current pace is 1.40 points per match, the pace expected from the next opponents is 1.17. Over the next 5 rounds the model gives 5.9 points. Outcome chances and expected points come from the opponent's attack and defence with a home advantage adjustment: a fixture is worth 3 points for a win and 1 for a draw.

Follow this club: send the bot the command /follow Brentford and it will write when results and performance diverge.

The season so far

Every match: played with the score, ahead with the date. Click for the breakdown.

Club players

Around them in the table

Full EPL xPTS table →

Other clubs of the league