The score says how it ended. xG says how it should have ended: it is the sum of the chances each shot was worth, not an opinion about the game.
A fair draw: the xG gap is only 0.46.
| Team | Goals | xG | Goals − xG | Expected points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leeds United | 1 | 1.15 | −0.1 | 1.06 |
| Brentford | 1 | 1.61 | −0.6 | 1.69 |
Leeds United: +1.8 for the season (5 in the table). Brentford: +0.6 (4). The gap between points and xPTS is built from matches like this one.