Chelsea — Brighton 4:3

Chelsea

4:3

Brighton

The score says how it ended. xG says how it should have ended: it is the sum of the chances each shot was worth, not an opinion about the game.

Who deserved it

The score matched the game: Chelsea was the better side by chances too.

The numbers

Team	Goals	xG	Goals − xG	Expected points
Chelsea	4	3.83	+0.2	2.34
Brighton	3	1.79	+1.2	0.54

Goals

Minute	Goal	Team	Shot xG	Assist
3'	Romeo Lavia	Chelsea	0.64
13'	Pedro Neto	Chelsea	0.60	Morgan Rogers
31'	João Pedro	Chelsea	0.50	Jorrel Hato
34'	Malick Yalcouyé	Brighton	0.34
62'	João Pedro (own goal)	Brighton	—
73'	Cole Palmer	Chelsea	0.05	João Pedro
95'	Pascal Groß	Brighton	0.05

Key chances

Minute	Player	Team	xG	Outcome
57'	Cole Palmer	Chelsea	0.67	off target
3'	Romeo Lavia	Chelsea	0.64	goal, from a corner
13'	Pedro Neto	Chelsea	0.60	goal

Shots: Chelsea 17, Brighton 15; big chances (xG 0.3 and above): 5 and 3.

How the game went

In the first half xG was Chelsea 2.67, Brighton 1.42: a clear edge for Chelsea. In the second half xG was Chelsea 1.24, Brighton 0.45: a small edge for Chelsea. The edge in chances lasted the whole match. Brighton scored 3 from 1.79 xG: more than they created. As a rule, finishing like this evens out over time.

How it fits the season

Chelsea: +3.2 for the season (5 in the table). Brighton: +3.8 (2). The gap between points and xPTS is built from matches like this one.

Other matches of the round

Sunderland — Fulham 1:0Leeds United — Brentford 1:1Manchester United — Ipswich Town 5:2

All EPL matches with xG →