The score says how it ended. xG says how it should have ended: it is the sum of the chances each shot was worth, not an opinion about the game.
A fair draw: the xG gap is only 0.04.
| Team | Goals | xG | Goals − xG | Expected points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leeds United | 0 | 1.09 | −1.1 | 1.32 |
| Crystal Palace | 0 | 1.13 | −1.1 | 1.39 |
Leeds United: +1.8 for the season (5 in the table). Crystal Palace: −1.4 (15). The gap between points and xPTS is built from matches like this one.