The score says how it ended. xG says how it should have ended: it is the sum of the chances each shot was worth, not an opinion about the game.
A fair draw: the xG gap is only 0.40.
| Team | Goals | xG | Goals − xG | Expected points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fulham | 1 | 1.72 | −0.7 | 1.16 |
| Manchester United | 1 | 2.12 | −1.1 | 1.63 |
Fulham: −3.1 for the season (19 in the table). Manchester United: −3.4 (12). The gap between points and xPTS is built from matches like this one.