The score says how it ended. xG says how it should have ended: it is the sum of the chances each shot was worth, not an opinion about the game.
A draw, but Nottingham Forest created more (2.88 xG against 1.28) — points dropped.
| Team | Goals | xG | Goals − xG | Expected points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool | 2 | 1.28 | +0.7 | 0.58 |
| Nottingham Forest | 2 | 2.88 | −0.9 | 2.26 |
Liverpool: +1.1 for the season (6 in the table). Nottingham Forest: −4.2 (13). The gap between points and xPTS is built from matches like this one.