Liverpool — Nottingham Forest 2:2

Liverpool

2:2

Nottingham Forest

The score says how it ended. xG says how it should have ended: it is the sum of the chances each shot was worth, not an opinion about the game.

Who deserved it

A draw, but Nottingham Forest created more (2.88 xG against 1.28) — points dropped.

The numbers

Team	Goals	xG	Goals − xG	Expected points
Liverpool	2	1.28	+0.7	0.58
Nottingham Forest	2	2.88	−0.9	2.26

Goals

Minute	Goal	Team	Shot xG	Assist
23'	Dan Ndoye	Nottingham Forest	0.28	Morgan Gibbs-White
59'	Alexander Isak	Liverpool	0.64	Cody Gakpo
69'	Morgan Gibbs-White (penalty)	Nottingham Forest	0.76
81'	Víctor Muñoz	Liverpool	0.06	Florian Wirtz

Key chances

Minute	Player	Team	xG	Outcome
10'	Igor Jesus	Nottingham Forest	0.84	blocked
59'	Alexander Isak	Liverpool	0.64	goal
23'	Dan Ndoye	Nottingham Forest	0.28	goal

Shots: Liverpool 13, Nottingham Forest 12; big chances (xG 0.3 and above): 1 and 2.

How the game went

In the first half xG was Liverpool 0.20, Nottingham Forest 1.49: a clear edge for Nottingham Forest. In the second half xG was Liverpool 1.06, Nottingham Forest 1.39: a small edge for Nottingham Forest. The edge in chances lasted the whole match.

How it fits the season

Liverpool: +3.1 for the season (4 in the table). Nottingham Forest: −8.6 (16). The gap between points and xPTS is built from matches like this one.

Other matches of the round

Coventry City — Hull City 0:1Bournemouth — Everton 1:1Tottenham Hotspur — Newcastle United 0:2

All EPL matches with xG →