Bournemouth — Everton 1:1

Bournemouth

1:1

Everton

The score says how it ended. xG says how it should have ended: it is the sum of the chances each shot was worth, not an opinion about the game.

Who deserved it

A draw, but Bournemouth created more (2.26 xG against 1.66) — points dropped.

The numbers

Team	Goals	xG	Goals − xG	Expected points
Bournemouth	1	2.26	−1.3	1.75
Everton	1	1.66	−0.7	1.05

Goals

Minute	Goal	Team	Shot xG	Assist
40'	Alex Scott	Bournemouth	0.11	Evanilson
90'	James Tarkowski	Everton	0.07

Key chances

Minute	Player	Team	xG	Outcome
19'	Thierno Barry	Everton	0.63	saved
75'	Justin Kluivert	Bournemouth	0.63	saved, from a corner
48'	Thierno Barry	Everton	0.41	saved

Shots: Bournemouth 17, Everton 13; big chances (xG 0.3 and above): 2 and 2.

How the game went

In the first half xG was Bournemouth 0.61, Everton 1.07: a small edge for Everton. In the second half xG was Bournemouth 1.70, Everton 0.60: a clear edge for Bournemouth. The edge in chances passed from Everton to Bournemouth. Bournemouth scored 1 from 2.26 xG: fewer than they created. As a rule, finishing like this evens out over time.

How it fits the season

Bournemouth: −3.6 for the season (7 in the table). Everton: +1.4 (6). The gap between points and xPTS is built from matches like this one.

Other matches of the round

Liverpool — Nottingham Forest 2:2Coventry City — Hull City 0:1Tottenham Hotspur — Newcastle United 0:2

All EPL matches with xG →